In a bold and potentially game-changing move, China is advancing the construction of what will become the world’s largest dam on the Brahmaputra River, a critical watercourse in Asia that flows through China, India, and Bangladesh. With an estimated cost of $137 billion, this ambitious project on the Upper Brahmaputra, located in Tibet, has sent shockwaves throughout the region, with India expressing growing concerns about the potential implications for both regional stability and national security.
The Brahmaputra River, one of the longest and most significant rivers in Asia, originates in Tibet as the Yarlung Tsangpo before flowing into India, Bangladesh, and ultimately the Bay of Bengal. The river is a lifeline for millions of people across the subcontinent, providing essential water for agriculture, hydropower, and drinking. The proposed dam, which is designed to generate massive hydropower capacity, represents not only a technological and economic feat for China but also a potent tool for geopolitical maneuvering.
Strategic Leverage: Control of Water as a Political Weapon
The world’s largest dam, once completed, will significantly alter the flow of water from the Brahmaputra River. For downstream nations, particularly India, this raises the terrifying possibility that China could use the river as leverage to apply pressure in diplomatic or political disputes. By controlling the flow of water, China could, in theory, manipulate the river’s flow in ways that could flood Indian territories or, conversely, restrict water supplies that are crucial for agriculture, power generation, and even drinking water.
India’s northeastern state of Assam, where the Brahmaputra river flows in a wide and mighty course, could be particularly vulnerable. The region is already prone to seasonal flooding, and the construction of a large-scale dam upstream could exacerbate these risks. In addition, China’s ability to stop or divert water could create significant drought conditions, devastating agricultural outputs and threatening the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on the river.
“We are in uncharted territory,” said Dr. Ayesha Khan, a geopolitical analyst at the Institute of Asian Affairs. “This project could be a blueprint for how China intends to use water as a form of power, not only over its immediate neighbors but also as a strategic asset that extends to the broader region. The idea of ‘peace on land, war with water’ could become a defining feature of China’s geopolitical strategy in the coming years.”
India’s Response: National Security and Regional Alliances
The construction of the Brahmaputra dam by China has forced India to reconsider its strategy regarding water security, especially concerning shared river systems. India and China have no formal water-sharing agreement on the Brahmaputra, unlike with other transboundary rivers such as the Indus, which has a treaty in place between India and Pakistan. This lack of formal arrangement leaves India vulnerable to China’s potential use of water resources for political leverage.
“The primary concern for India is that it will not have enough influence over decisions regarding the river’s flow,” explained Shyam Sunder, a former Indian Foreign Service officer. “Given the already fraught relations with China over border disputes, this situation could become a flashpoint for larger tensions in the future.”
In response, India has been exploring a number of avenues to counterbalance China’s growing control over the river’s water. These include strengthening bilateral water-sharing agreements with Bangladesh, which also shares the Brahmaputra, and exploring new hydropower projects within its own borders to safeguard against any disruptions in the river’s flow. India has also emphasized the need to develop regional frameworks for water management that can prevent any one country from monopolizing such vital resources.
“India must adopt a more assertive diplomatic and military stance,” said Major General Rajeev Sharma (ret.), an expert on South Asian security. “Building stronger alliances with Bangladesh and Bhutan, and taking a more active role in forums like the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Cooperation, will be crucial in countering China’s strategic advantage.”
The Growing Water Crisis: A Global Trend
China’s increasing focus on controlling water resources is not an isolated case but part of a broader global trend in which water is becoming a strategic commodity. From the Mekong River in Southeast Asia to the Nile in Africa, countries are increasingly using control of water to further their national interests. China’s focus on the Brahmaputra is particularly significant due to the critical role the river plays in supporting the economies and populations of India and Bangladesh.
“Water is becoming the new oil,” said Professor K. R. Subramanian, an expert on international relations. “Countries that control the sources of water, especially rivers that cross international borders, will have tremendous leverage over their neighbors. For China, this is not just about energy production. It’s about ensuring that its dominance extends into the domain of water security.”
While China’s dam project on the Brahmaputra is focused primarily on hydropower and flood management, it is not hard to see the broader implications for regional power dynamics. Beijing’s control over the flow of one of Asia’s most important rivers gives it a powerful bargaining chip in any future conflict or negotiation.
Regional Reactions: Bangladesh’s Concern and Diplomatic Responses
Bangladesh, which also relies heavily on the Brahmaputra for water, has voiced significant concerns over China’s dam project. The country shares the river with both India and China, and any significant alteration in its flow could have devastating consequences on Bangladesh’s agricultural sector, which is already vulnerable to floods and droughts.
“Bangladesh has a unique position in this situation,” said Dr. Farhana Rahman, a Dhaka-based water policy expert. “The Brahmaputra accounts for nearly 30% of the country’s water resources, and China’s manipulation of this resource could lead to catastrophic consequences for Bangladesh’s rice production and water supply systems. There is also the threat of China pushing for influence in regional water management, further isolating Bangladesh.”
In response, Bangladesh has called for multilateral discussions and stronger water-sharing agreements with China and India. The government has also sought the support of international organizations, including the United Nations, to establish a framework for managing transboundary rivers in South Asia, ensuring that no single country can unilaterally control the vital resource.
The Future of Water Diplomacy in South Asia
The construction of the Brahmaputra dam is a turning point in the way countries in South Asia—and beyond—view the importance of water. As China continues to expand its infrastructure projects, including those related to water control, the region is likely to see increasing competition over shared water resources. The future of the Brahmaputra, and other transboundary rivers, could determine not only the environmental and economic health of these nations but also the geopolitical stability of the entire region.
“As China continues to grow its global influence, its control over water resources will become an increasingly important tool in its foreign policy toolkit,” warned Dr. Hossain. “What happens on the Brahmaputra could set a dangerous precedent for other rivers, and it is essential that India, Bangladesh, and other downstream countries form strong alliances to address this emerging threat.”
A New Era of Water Wars?
With the completion of the Brahmaputra dam, China could gain unprecedented control over the river’s flow, giving it a potent tool to wield in regional geopolitics. The potential consequences of such control for India, Bangladesh, and even Southeast Asia could be dire. This new dimension of geopolitical competition—where peace is pursued on land but war could be waged with water—may mark a pivotal moment in South Asia’s evolving security landscape.
The dam represents not just a technological marvel but a bold assertion of power. As countries across the region grapple with the reality of water scarcity and the strategic significance of transboundary rivers, the Brahmaputra dam could become the first of many such projects, signaling the dawn of a new era in which water is the most valuable commodity in the global geopolitical game.
References:
- “China’s Water Control Strategy: The Impact of the Brahmaputra Dam,” Asia Water Review, 2023.
- Ranjit Singh, “China’s Water Diplomacy: Strategic Implications for India and Southeast Asia,” International Affairs Journal, 2024.
- Dr. Dinesh Kumar, “Water Politics in South Asia: The Brahmaputra and Beyond,” South Asian Geopolitics, 2024.
- “India’s Water Security Concerns: The Threat of Chinese Control Over the Brahmaputra,” The Hindu, 2024.
- Dr. Alamgir Hossain, “Transboundary Water Sharing: Challenges for Bangladesh,” Dhaka Water Conference, 2024.
- Major General Rajeev Sharma (ret.), “Geopolitics of Water and India’s Security,” South Asian Defense Review, 2024.
