Jake Sullivan, the U.S. National Security Advisor, is scheduled to visit New Delhi on January 5-6, 2025. His visit marks a significant step in strengthening the U.S.-India strategic partnership, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, where China’s growing influence has become a shared concern. One of the key issues expected to dominate discussions is China’s proposed mega-dam project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, which could have serious geopolitical, environmental, and water security implications for India and Bangladesh.
The timing of Sullivan’s visit is crucial, as both Washington and New Delhi are looking to deepen cooperation on regional security, countering China’s influence, and addressing transboundary water management issues that could affect millions of people in South Asia.
China’s Tibetan Dam Project: A Growing Threat to India’s Water Security
China’s new hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, known as the Brahmaputra once it enters India, has raised alarms in New Delhi. The proposed dam is set to be even larger than the famous Three Gorges Dam, one of the world’s most powerful hydropower projects. According to Chinese reports, the new dam could produce up to 60 gigawatts of electricity, significantly boosting China’s renewable energy capacity.
However, for India, the project represents a direct threat to water security in its northeastern states, particularly Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, which are heavily dependent on the Brahmaputra River. The river also plays a vital role in agriculture, fisheries, and water supply for millions of people in Bangladesh.
The estimated cost of the project is a staggering $34.83 billion, and it will require the relocation of nearly 1.4 million people in Tibet. Despite the environmental and social costs, China sees the project as a strategic investment to reduce its carbon emissions and increase its control over key water resources.
India’s Concerns: Water Flow Disruptions and Strategic Risks
The Brahmaputra River is a lifeline for India’s northeastern region, providing water for agriculture, hydroelectric power, and drinking water. Any disruption in the river’s flow could have devastating consequences for local communities and ecosystems.
India has already expressed its concerns to Beijing about China’s growing control over upstream water resources. Indian officials fear that the new dam in Tibet will allow China to manipulate the flow of the Brahmaputra, creating potential risks for floods or droughts in downstream areas.
Ranbir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, reiterated India’s stance:
“Downstream countries have legitimate rights over shared rivers. We have consistently communicated our concerns to China at both political and expert levels. The government will continue to monitor the situation and take necessary steps to protect our interests.”
India has also been wary of China’s control over other transboundary rivers. The Mekong River, which flows through Southeast Asia, has already seen disruptions due to Chinese dams, causing significant environmental and economic damage to downstream countries like Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
China’s Response: Downplaying the Impact
Chinese officials have downplayed concerns about the impact of their hydropower projects on downstream countries. They argue that the dams are primarily for electricity generation and will not significantly affect water flow or availability in India or Bangladesh.
A Chinese government spokesperson recently stated:
“The hydropower projects in Tibet are part of China’s effort to reduce carbon emissions and achieve sustainable development. These projects are designed to minimize environmental impact and do not pose a threat to downstream countries.”
However, experts remain skeptical. They argue that controlling the flow of a major river like the Brahmaputra gives China significant geopolitical leverage, allowing it to influence water security in India and Bangladesh.
The U.S. Position: Supporting India’s Concerns
The United States has been closely monitoring China’s water diplomacy, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. During Jake Sullivan’s visit, the issue of China’s dam construction is expected to be a key topic of discussion.
A U.S. official, quoted by The Economic Times, said:
“Chinese dam projects, particularly in regions like the Mekong, have shown that they can have significant environmental and climatic impacts on downstream countries. Washington is aware of India’s concerns regarding the Brahmaputra, and this will be discussed during the visit.”
The U.S. views India as a key partner in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Sullivan’s visit is part of a broader effort to strengthen ties between the two countries in areas such as defense, technology, and regional security.
Impact on Bangladesh: A Silent Victim
While India is vocal about its concerns, Bangladesh — the final downstream country of the Brahmaputra — remains a silent victim of both Chinese and Indian dam projects. Over the years, India has constructed numerous dams upstream that have affected water flow into Bangladesh, particularly during the dry season.
Bangladesh heavily depends on the Brahmaputra River for agriculture, drinking water, and fisheries. Any disruption in the river’s flow could have severe consequences for millions of people. However, Bangladesh’s concerns are often overlooked in the bilateral discussions between India and China.
Analysts argue that Bangladesh needs to be included in transboundary water management talks to ensure fair and equitable sharing of water resources.
A Geopolitical Race for Control Over Water
The construction of dams has become a geopolitical race between China and India. Both countries are competing to harness the hydropower potential of rivers originating from the Himalayas.
China’s dam projects in Tibet are part of its broader strategy to control key water resources in the region. By building dams upstream, China can regulate water flow into India and Bangladesh, creating potential leverage in future diplomatic negotiations.
India, on the other hand, is accelerating its own hydropower projects in Arunachal Pradesh to secure its water resources. The Indian government has approved several new hydropower projects in the region, aiming to reduce its dependence on Chinese-controlled rivers.
Experts warn that this dam race could lead to increased tensions between the two countries, potentially escalating into a broader geopolitical conflict.
The Way Forward: Regional Cooperation or Conflict?
Water security is emerging as a critical issue in South Asia, with significant implications for regional stability. Analysts believe that regional cooperation is essential to prevent potential conflicts over transboundary rivers.
Some experts have suggested the creation of a regional water-sharing framework, similar to the Mekong River Commission, to manage shared water resources in South Asia. However, achieving such cooperation will require political will from all parties, particularly China, India, and Bangladesh.
The U.S. could play a role in facilitating dialogue between these countries to ensure fair and equitable water-sharing arrangements. Sullivan’s visit to India could be the first step in that direction.
Inclusion, Jake Sullivan’s upcoming visit to India underscores the importance of the U.S.-India strategic partnership in addressing shared challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. The discussions on China’s dam project in Tibet will be a key focus, as it impacts not just India but also downstream countries like Bangladesh.
As China and India continue their dam-building race, the risks of water-related conflicts in South Asia are increasing. Regional cooperation and dialogue will be essential to ensure sustainable and equitable management of shared water resources. Sullivan’s visit offers an opportunity to strengthen U.S.-India cooperation on this critical issue and pave the way for a more stable and secure region.
References:
- The Economic Times
- Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India
- U.S. Department of State
- South Asia Water Initiative (SAWI)
- World Resources Institute (WRI)
