The era of political, economic, and social instability is no longer just a fleeting trend; it has become a defining feature of the 21st century. A key catalyst for this growing uncertainty has been the presidency of Donald Trump, whose controversial policies disrupted global norms and transformed international relations. As his “America First” agenda gained momentum, it highlighted deep fractures within the global system, accelerating processes of deglobalization, political polarization, and economic instability. Today, as the world stands at the crossroads of the post-Trump era, many are questioning the sustainability of the world order that has existed for over half a century. Can the world recover its balance, or is it destined to face a new era of fragmentation?
The Trump Doctrine: A Radical Shift in U.S. Foreign and Domestic Policies
Donald Trump’s presidency was marked by the departure from conventional U.S. foreign policy. His “America First” ideology was a rejection of globalism in favor of policies aimed at protecting American interests, particularly in terms of trade, security, and national identity. This approach not only altered the landscape of domestic politics but also sent shockwaves across the international community, challenging the norms that had governed global relations since the end of World War II.
Protectionism and Trade Wars
One of the most defining features of Trump’s presidency was his focus on economic nationalism, which manifested primarily through protectionist trade policies. His administration imposed tariffs on a range of goods, particularly targeting China, in an effort to curb the U.S. trade deficit and bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. The trade war with China, initiated in 2018, led to a series of tit-for-tat tariffs that disrupted global supply chains and affected industries worldwide.
While Trump’s supporters argued that these policies were necessary for the revitalization of the American industrial base, critics contended that the tariffs were detrimental to global trade. Many American companies, particularly those relying on Chinese imports, saw their costs rise, which led to inflationary pressures and strained consumer purchasing power. Meanwhile, China’s retaliatory tariffs hurt American farmers and manufacturers, making it clear that the benefits of protectionism were often short-term at best.
Additionally, Trump’s renegotiation of trade agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), and his withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) demonstrated his preference for bilateral over multilateral trade relations. This shift further weakened international cooperation, as countries found themselves increasingly isolated from one another in trade discussions.
Withdrawal from Global Agreements and Institutions
Trump’s policy of disengagement from international agreements was another pillar of his presidency. One of his most contentious moves was withdrawing the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017. By abandoning the agreement, which sought to unite countries in the fight against climate change, Trump signaled a shift away from global cooperation on environmental issues. This move alienated key allies, such as the European Union, which had committed to reducing carbon emissions in line with the Paris goals. It also emboldened other nations like China and India, who were now able to pursue their own environmental policies without U.S. pressure.
Trump also pursued a more transactional approach to foreign policy, opting to negotiate “deals” rather than maintaining multilateral commitments. For instance, his administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, despite the agreement’s endorsement by other global powers, created significant diplomatic fallout. The subsequent “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, including economic sanctions, led to further instability in the Middle East, raising the risk of a wider conflict.
These moves highlighted a growing divide between the U.S. and its traditional allies, particularly in Europe. Leaders like German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron warned of the weakening of multilateralism and the erosion of global norms that had once united countries in addressing global challenges. In essence, Trump’s presidency marked the end of a cooperative U.S. foreign policy model and the rise of a more isolationist, nationalist approach.
Global Economic Uncertainty: The Ripple Effects of Trump’s Policies
Under Trump’s leadership, the global economy was thrust into a period of heightened uncertainty. His policies, particularly in trade and taxation, played a significant role in reshaping economic dynamics across the globe, often creating ripple effects that spanned beyond U.S. borders.
The Rise of Protectionism and Deglobalization
Trump’s focus on protectionism signaled the beginning of a shift away from the era of globalization. With the introduction of tariffs and trade restrictions, he not only distanced the U.S. from its allies but also forced other countries to reconsider their reliance on global trade agreements. Economists and trade experts began to forecast the decline of free trade, and many multinational corporations started to rethink their global supply chains.
The U.S. and China, the two largest economies in the world, became locked in a fierce economic rivalry. While both countries engaged in trade negotiations, the eventual outcome—the Phase One trade deal—fell short of resolving underlying tensions. China agreed to purchase more American goods, but Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products remained in place, continuing the trade standoff. For many nations, this ongoing conflict between the world’s two largest economies served as a warning about the fragility of the global economic system.
The growing trend toward protectionism also led to the re-emergence of economic nationalism in other parts of the world. In Europe, populist leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Matteo Salvini advocated for a return to national sovereignty and a reduction in EU intervention in domestic economies. Similarly, the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union in 2016—exacerbated by Trump’s endorsement of Brexit—was another example of growing skepticism toward multinational economic cooperation.
The COVID-19 Pandemic: Exposing Global Vulnerabilities
The global economic landscape, already unstable due to Trump’s policies, was further destabilized by the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic revealed the vulnerabilities in global supply chains and the over-reliance on interconnected economies. In response, many countries began to reconsider their dependency on foreign production and called for “reshoring” jobs back to their home countries, aligning with Trump’s push for bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.
However, the pandemic also underscored the importance of international collaboration. Despite Trump’s rhetoric of isolationism, global challenges like the pandemic required cooperation between countries to develop and distribute vaccines, share information, and mitigate economic fallout. The failure of the U.S. to lead in these efforts, combined with internal political chaos, highlighted the dangers of retreating from international institutions and partnerships at a time when global cooperation was most needed.
Political Uncertainty: The Rise of Populism and Authoritarianism
Trump’s presidency also contributed to the rise of populist and authoritarian movements around the world. His “America First” rhetoric resonated with disillusioned voters in the U.S., many of whom felt left behind by globalization, rising inequality, and the erosion of traditional industries. His victory in 2016, against the backdrop of a deeply polarized electorate, set the stage for a wave of populist uprisings globally.
From Brazil to Poland to the Philippines, leaders with authoritarian tendencies or populist rhetoric gained traction by exploiting fears of immigration, economic inequality, and globalism. These leaders—such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, and the Philippines’ Rodrigo Duterte—followed Trump’s model of defying the political establishment, dismissing expert opinion, and promoting nativist policies. In doing so, they tapped into deep-seated frustrations with the political elite, presenting themselves as champions of the “common people.”
The international consequences of Trump’s populism were profound. His erratic approach to diplomacy, especially with traditional allies in Europe and Asia, left many questioning the future of democracy in the West. In the U.S., the aftermath of the 2020 election, which Trump falsely claimed was stolen, further exposed the vulnerabilities of American democracy. The January 6th Capitol riot, instigated by Trump supporters, was a stark reminder of the fragility of democratic institutions and the growing appeal of authoritarianism.
The Crumbling World Order: Fragmentation of Global Power
As the U.S. retreated from its role as a global leader, the world order that emerged after World War II began to unravel. Established institutions such as the United Nations (UN), the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) found themselves increasingly sidelined, unable to address the new challenges posed by geopolitical competition and economic instability.
China, under President Xi Jinping, began to assert itself as a global leader, promoting initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and seeking to expand its influence in Africa, Latin America, and Europe. Similarly, Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, made aggressive moves to reassert its influence over former Soviet states and challenge NATO in Eastern Europe. The decline of U.S. influence on the global stage allowed these countries to take a more assertive stance in international affairs, contributing to the fragmentation of global governance.
The rise of regional powers and the decline of U.S. hegemony marked the end of an era in which Western-dominated institutions guided the course of global politics. This fragmentation poses significant challenges for addressing global issues such as climate change, trade, and international security. The absence of a strong, unifying force in global governance could lead to a future where countries prioritize their own interests over collective action, exacerbating global instability.
A New Global Landscape
The policies of Donald Trump set in motion a series of changes that have irreversibly altered the global landscape. His emphasis on economic nationalism, political populism, and withdrawal from international cooperation has accelerated the decline of the post-World War II global order. As the world grapples with economic instability, political polarization, and shifting alliances, many wonder what the future holds for international relations.
The world order is breaking down!—the realization that the traditional world order is no longer sustainable has become increasingly evident. As nations retreat into their own spheres of influence, the challenges of global governance become ever more complex. The world now faces a period of uncertainty, where the crumbling of old alliances and the rise of new powers may define the global order for generations to come. Only time will tell whether a new, more equitable system of international relations can emerge, or if the world is destined to fall into a period of fragmentation and competition.
